Beware the frequency illusion
Just because you notice something more than once doesn't mean it’s more common
Have you ever bought a new car and then, seemingly out of nowhere, started seeing that same make and model everywhere?
This isn’t because there’s been a sudden surge in popularity for that particular vehicle, it’s an example of what's known as the frequency illusion.
Also called the Baader-Meinhof phenomenon, the frequency illusion occurs when something you’ve just noticed or learned about suddenly appears to crop up constantly in your environment.
It’s not that the item or event has become more frequent, but rather that your brain has started to pay more attention to it.
The illusion arises from two psychological processes: selective attention, where your mind unconsciously starts to notice the thing more often, and confirmation bias, where you assume its increased visibility confirms your belief that it’s suddenly more common.
In many cases, the frequency illusion is harmless. It can even be amusing. For example, you might learn a new word and then hear it in three different conversations within a week. These moments can give us a sense of connection with the world around us and even a feeling of serendipity.
But the frequency illusion can also have downsides, especially when it influences serious decisions.
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For example, someone who hears several stories about home burglaries might become convinced there’s a crime wave, even if crime statistics show no significant change. This can lead to unnecessary fear, anxiety, or a costly overreaction, such as buying an expensive home security systems or moving away to a “safer” neighbourhood.
The effect can be particularly dangerous in medicine. A doctor who recently diagnosed a rare condition may become more likely to see signs of it in other patients, even when it’s not the correct diagnosis. This bias can lead to them implementing the wrong treatment, with real consequences for patient health.
At a time of ever-present social media and 24/7 news cycles, the frequency illusion is more potent than ever. Algorithms feed us more of what we’ve shown interest in, reinforcing the feeling that something is suddenly “everywhere” and possibly distorting our perception of reality.
Understanding the frequency illusion is the first step in guarding against its misleading effects.
By recognising that increased awareness doesn’t equal increased occurrence, we can think more critically, and calmly, about the world around us.